Expect a hot summer in Rochester according to NOAA

ROCHESTER, NY (WROC) – June has been hot compared to average standards and that trend looks to continue through July, August, and September. If you like the heat, it looks like the entire Northeast and much of the United States will cash in on above-average heat to finish the summer.

As of June 28, Rochester is 1.6° above average and 1.78″ below average.

SHORT TERM FORECAST: Below is the 8-Day Forecast that runs from June 28 to July 5. The average high/low for this time of year is 80°/60°F. Every afternoon high and overnight low should run a few degrees above normal.

Get ready for a warm stretch through the first part of July.

Warmer air will continue to establish itself across the eastern part of the country and that lasts through the July 4 weekend. Also, note a lack of precipitation. A blocking pattern during this period will help prevent any significant rain showers outside of an isolated storm that would form from a weak front or lake breeze.

MID-RANGE FORECAST: Longer range models that show general trends are hinting toward a ridging pattern from the jet stream aloft. Once the jet stream starts to surge northward, that allows for warmer air from the south to move into the Great Lakes and the Northeast. Below is the Global Forecast System (GFS) American blend of models that can look out weeks in advance and show what could be the general setup heading into the middle of July.

This forecast is valid for the weekend of July 12 and shows a decent ridging pattern about five miles off the ground. This type of setup would lead to a warmer pattern overall for much of the United States through at least the middle of July.

LONGER RANGE FORECAST: The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts out months in advance for temperature and precipitation. By the red below you can imagine we’re going to see warmth. The period forecast is for July, August, and September with above average warmth. A more in-depth analysis is below.

Western New York is in the 50%-60% range for above average. The breakdown goes something like this. Below, Normal, and Above all get a 33.33% chance of occurrence. Lets say in this scenario Rochester has a 55% chance of above average temperatures through this period. That means 45%/2 = 22.5%, so there is a 22.5% chance for both below normal and average.

PRECIPITATION FORECAST: Precipitation forecasts, especially for the summer, are very difficult as the process for precipitation is on such a smaller scale. For example, a lake breeze can trigger afternoon thunderstorms that bring major downpours to some regions while others remain bone dry. As per the seasonal data above, we are creeping toward two inches below average for Rochester and the Drought Monitor has much of the Finger Lakes in the “Abnormally Dry” category.

The forecast does not look promising for rain chances through the first part of July. The CPC has most of the country in an average or slightly above average category for precipitation. While unlikely that Western New York will enter a drought, a warmer trending forecast with a significant deficit in rain through June does point in that direction.

~Meteorologist James Gilbert


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